OKAY, I’m finished. I’ve seen all the ones I’m going to see.
Not counting Documentary, Animated and Live Action Short and Foreign Language there are 30 films with Oscar nominations. I have seen 25 of those. And out of what are considered the top tier 8 awards (Picture, Acting, Directing, and Screenplay) I’ve seen all but one. And so now I’m ready to tell you, not only what will win, but what should win….
PICTURE – This is the tightest race of them all. Even tighter than last year’s battle between La La Land and Moonlight – so it will be a dramatic end to the night, although not as dramatic as last year.
Will Win – The Shape of Water. Three Billboards could pull it out, but the Academy uses a funky ranking ballot and I think that The Shape of Water will have more 2nd place votes than Billboards, so plan on it being Shape of Water.
Should Win – This one probably really is The Shape of Water. It’s a fantastic film with so much to offer on every level, but my vote would have been for Call Me By Your Name, it’s just a gut punch movie, that still hasn’t left my psyche.
And the Donald Trump Award (this used to be the WTF Is It Even Doing in The Category Award) goes to Dunkirk. It was a beautifully shot, loud film with nothing new to offer besides noise, lots and lots of noise. And it’s in this category instead of Wind River, there is no justice.
DIRECTOR – This isn’t even a competition
Will Win – Guillermo del Toro, Dude is a genius
Should Win – Guillermo del Toro, Dude is a genius
Donald Trump Award – Christopher Nolan, they gave him this to make up for past slights and in his place slighted Luca Guadgnino.
ACTOR – This should be more of a competition than it will be. Hollywood loves Showy
Will Win – Gary Oldman, His performance is a complete transformation, and Hollywood loves that, event thought half the battle was accomplished with make-up and prosthetics.
Should Win – Timothee’ Chalamet, his performance is so real and understated, and I said it before and I’ll say it again, just the last two minutes while the credits roll is some f the finest acting of this decade.
Donald Trump Award – Denzel Washington, his performance isn’t bad, it’s just a performance we’ve seen him give and give and give and give before. Chalamet was in four pictures this year, and in those four performances he played four different characters. That’s three more than Washington has done in the past four years.
ACTRESS – another easy one to predict, that really shouldn’t be
Will Win – Frances McDormand, when she’s on the screen in Three Billboards, she is amazing.
Should Win – I have typed four different names here and keep changing my mind, but I’m going with Sally Hawkins because she did it all with her eyes.
Donald Trump Award – Okay they all five deserve to be nominated so no winner here, but I must say that Meryl’s performance was probably the least memorable of the five.
SUPPORTING ACTOR – The real issue here is why wasn’t Armie Hammer or Michael Stuhlbarg even nominated?
Will Win – Sam Rockwell, although this is a category that has been known to surprise so if they call Will Dafoe’s name don’t be surprised.
Should Win – Michael Stuhlbarg, but since he wasn’t nominated I guess I’ll go with Barry Jenkins.
The Trump Award – Again no one is a bad nominee, but I think that Harrelson is the weakest.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – This is the battle of the Television Stars, and the one with the showier performance will win.
Will Win – Allison Janney, she’s gotten almost every other award, so why not this one. And her performance is a tour de force.
Should Win – Laurie Metcalf, her performance driving around the airport is award worthy, so award worthy.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Full disclosure, I haven’t seen Molly’s Game and I’m sure it’s a killer script since it’s from the God of Scripts, Aaron Sorkin
Will Win – Call Me By Your Name, this is the only award it will get, and it deserves so many more
Should Win – Call Me By Your Name, I truly loved this film and I’m not going to stop praising it. You can‘t make me.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – This is a hard one. Do they recognize a woman in the “Year of the Woman” or do they makeup for “OscarSoWhite” and give it to the black guy, or do they recognize the immigrant and thumb their nose at the Cheeto.
Will Win – Get Out, it’s a great film that takes a genre and turns it on it’s head.
Should Win – The Big Sick, one of the most overlooked films of 2017.
So, the big winner of the night will be The Shape of Water, it will probably end up with 6 awards, Dunkirk, Three Billboards, Darkest Hours and Coco will each get two. Phantom Thread, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, Blade Runner 2049, and I, Tonya will have one.
But hey, what do I know…….