WANT TO WIN YOUR OFFICE OSCAR POOL? LISTEN TO ME!

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The Super Bowl is finally here!!!!!  Yay!  What’s that you say, the Super Bowl was three weeks ago?  Maybe your Super Bowl was three weeks ago, but as far as I’m concerned that’s just a football game with a lot of expensive commercials.  My Super Bowl doesn’t happen the first Sunday in February, but happens the last Sunday in February.  The Academy Awards!   The Silver Screen’s night to shine!

And I think I know who is going to win.  I definitely know who should win.  And I have strong feelings about who shouldn’t even be nominated!  And yes, many of you may disagree with me, and I’m okay with that.  It’s really not your fault you’re not as smart as me.  Let’s blame your teachers.   Betsy DeVos would.

Okay so enough about that let’s get down to my picks

SUPPORTING ACTOR

untitled

Will Win:  Mahershala Ali is almost a certain bet, however this is the one category that the certain bet loses most often, so if it’s not him it will be…. 

Dark Horse:  Dev Patel, he’s great in the movie, the only problem is that he’s almost more of a lead actor and not a supporting actor, so the actor who….

Should Win: Lucas Hedges. It’s a true supporting role, is wonderful and revelatory.  There are so many moments in this movie that are so real, and many of them are because of this young man.

As far as shouldn’t even be nominated, that is easy…….Michael Shannon.  The academy is in love with this guy and they want to give him an Oscar.  And I get it, he’s a talented guy, but this is not a movie or performance that deserves the attention.

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

viola

Will Win:  Viola Davis is adored by everyone and she should be, she’s amazing and her performance is amazing.  I can’t even say there is a dark horse in this one.  Viola is the closest thing to a lock, which is a shame because her performance is a Lead performance and she shouldn’t be in this category.  Instead the actress who….

Should Win: Michelle Williams.  Again, a true supporting role.   And if she didn’t deserve it for the scene right after the fire, she deserves it for her last scene in the movie.  Her heartbreak is real.  Her loss is palpable.  Her emotions are there to make you cry.  And yet it’s not done in a showy or overt way.  It’s just real!

As far as who shouldn’t be nominated, besides Viola in this category, again it’s easy.  Octavia Spencer.  I love her but her role is nothing new for her.  I don’t see it a s a challenge.  The real Supporting Actress nominee from Hidden Figures should go to Janelle Monae.

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 moonlight

Will Win:  Moonlight.  They can give the Oscar to this one and then feel good about giving Barry Jenkins something without giving him Director or Film.  They did the same thing way back when with Matt and Ben with Good Will Hunting when that sinking ship film won. 

Dark Horse:  Hidden Figures.  The Academy may just want to show this movie some love and it ain’t getting anything else.

Should Win:  Lion.  Come on they took a book about a guy who planted himself in front of a computer looking at Google Earth for over three years and they made it into an amazingly touching film.  Why can’t they just let it win?

As far as shouldn’t even be nominated, I think a better description of this one is shouldn’t have even been made….Arrival.

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

manchester

Will Win:  Manchester by the Sea has a really good chance to be shown some love in this category.  Especially since I think it’s getting locked out in all the other categories. 

Dark Horse:  La La Land.  Hollywood is so hell bent to show themselves some love again this year.  They just love when a solid movie comes along about how wonderful they are, that they just can’t help themselves.

Should Win:   Manchester by the Sea.  This movie is so f’ing amazingly written.  I mean come on it’s the most heartfelt drama with such strong comedic undertones.  It deserves to win so bad

As far as shouldn’t even be nominated, again easy. The Lobster.  Don’t believe me, just watch it and then try to tell someone what it’s about without having to say “No seriously, that happens” at least a half dozen times.

 

DIRECTOR:

chazelle

Will Win:  Damien Chazelle.  Even the DGA gave it to him.  He made a Hollywood movie that made Hollywood look beautiful and happy and sad all at one time.  He pulled off a musical that could have gone so wrong.  He almost deserves it.

Dark Horse:  Barry Jenkins.  There’s just a slight chance that they want to prove that Oscars aren’t so white.

Should Win:  Kenneth Lonergan.  In case you haven’t figured it out, I loved Manchester by the Sea and think Lonergan did amazing things.

As far as shouldn’t even be nominated, let’s be honest Denis Villeneuve is only nominated for past work and not for Arrival.  Arrival receiving any nominations I choose to blame on Entertainment Weekly punking us all and raving about incessantly for weeks this past fall.

 

LEAD ACTOR

fences

Will Win:  Denzel Washington.  And yes it will be a travesty just like when he won in 2002 for Training Day against Russel Crowe for A Beautiful Mind or Tom Wilkinson for In the Bedroom.  I’m not saying Washington doesn’t deserve to have a couple of Oscars on his shelf but he seems to win them for the wrong movies. 

Should Win:  Casey Affleck.  The only reason Affleck isn’t going to win is because a campaign was started against him to punish him for his past mistakes.  Oddly enough we can elect a man into the highest office in the world who want to grab women by their pussies, but we can’t seem to think that a man has grown from his sexist past and recognize him for a truly amazing performance.  Ridiculous.

As far as who shouldn’t even be nominated, it’s the guy who is going to win.  Washington’s performance is the weakest part of the movie.  I mean it’s not bad, but everyone in the movie out shines him, and not in a good way.  He just doesn’t deserve it.

 

LEAD ACTRESS

emma

Will Win:  Emma Stone.  Hollywood loves her and has actually forgiven her for Aloha, which no one should ever forgive her or Bradley Cooper for.  And she is great in the movie, so they are going to give it to her.  Unless….

Dark Horse:  Isabelle Huppert.  This is the only acting nomination I haven’t seen but I hear she’s amazing and Hollywood may decide she deserves it because she not only gives a great performance but she did it in French, which is something many of them can’t do.

Should Win:  Well since Viola is nominated in the wrong category, I think Natalie Portman deserves the love that she is not going to get for her portrayal of Jackie.  If you haven’t seen it, you really should.  The movie has flaws, but absolutely none of them are in Portman’s performance.

As far as who shouldn’t be nominated, I’m going to be sacrilegious and say it’s Meryl.  She truly is the best actress alive today if not the best actress to ever live (sorry Bette), but her tour de force performance in Florence Foster Jenkins isn’t as deserving as a few other performances were this year.

 

MOTION PICTURE

la-la

Will Win:  La La Land.  Like I keep saying Hollywood loves themselves some Hollywood and this movie is classic vintage Hollywood.  The only way it doesn’t win is if….

Dark Horse:  Moonlight.  Maybe the academy will want to say that we have to pick a message movie at this politically charged time, and this is the movie with the message.

Should Win:  Lion.  I just loved this movie and in all honesty, have not talked to a single soul who has seen it that hasn’t loved it.  There is no other movie on the list that I can say that about.

And do I really need to say  that Arrival  even being on the Best Motion Picture list was just wrong? Almost a wrong a an orange president!

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THE “LESSER” CATEGORIES

I call them “lesser” not because they are lesser, but because people who don’t treat this day like a national holiday could care even less about these awards than the ones listed above.

Original Song:   City of Stars from La La Land, even though it’s probably one of the weakest of the list.

Original Score:   La La Land, although mad props to both Jackie and Moonlight, they both move their movie.

Animated Feature:  Zootopia    Dark Horse: Red Turtle

Cinematography:   La La Land, although it should be Lion

Foreign Language:   Toni Erdmann, although it should be A Man Called Ove.  By the way, why haven’t all of you seen this movie?

Film Editing:   La La Land, because it’s Hollywood.

Art Direction:   La La Land, because it’s Hollywood

Costume Design:   La La Land because it’s Hollywood, although it should be Jackie or Fantastic Beasts

Makeup:  Star Trek Beyond, although the academy could show love to A Man Called Ove here since they aren’t showing it the love it deserves for Foreign Language Film

Sound Mixing:   La La Land, because it’s Hollywood.

Sound Editing:   PLEASE let it be Hacksaw Ridge, that guy is the Susan Lucci of Sound Editing

Visual Effects:   The Jungle Book

Documentary Feature:   O.J. Made in America

Documentary Short:  The White Helmets

Live Action Short:    Sing, No, not that one but the short one that is good

Animated Short:  Piper, because it was shown before Finding Dory so everyone saw it.

 

Now quick run and join your office Oscar Pool with my picks if you want to win!

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