Tomorrow, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their nominations for this year’s Oscars. And as usual I have predictions for who I think they will be. I’m not saying that I’m going to be right, but just like in November I feel pretty confident that I have a good idea of who the voters are. Unlike in November I think the voters are going to actually vote for the deserving people and not for some Orange Megalomaniacal Idiot. Not that I am implying that our President is an Orange megalomaniacal Idiot. Because I am not implying it, I am saying it. Apparently it’s all the rage in America to just say whatever we want and damn the repercussions.
Okay enough with my political thoughts. Here are my guesses of nominations. Now these aren’t based on who I think should get nominated, because I haven’t seen even half of these films. This is strictly based on the other award nominations and the political reality of these films. And yes, it’s all political. How else do you explain Crash over Brokeback Mountain?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight – It’s a lock!
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water – Another Lock
Dev Patel – Lion – Almost a certainty, unless some try to put him in the Best Actor.
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins – He’s due and beyond held his own against Streep.
Aaron Taylor Johnson – Nocturnal Animals – Maybe, he’s the long shot
DARK HORSE: Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences – Locked and Loaded.
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea – She breaks your heart with just a few scenes. It’s a lock.
Nicoel Kidman – Lion – They love her (I love her) and she’s really good in the film. Almost a certainty.
Naomie Harris – She’s locked up a lot of critic noms so she almost good to go.
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures – They love her too. And they nominated her for the same performance in The Help
DARKHORSES: Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures, Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Woman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
La La Land – February 26th is their night
Manchester by the Sea – It’s heartbreaking
The Lobster – Because Hollywood loves to smoke crack, there’s no other excuse for this atrocity.
Hell or High Water – It’s got that old school field.
20th Century Woman – Because there is nothing else out there
DARKHORSES: Captain Fantastic, Jackie
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival – Don’t ask me why, but everyone loves this film. Even the non-crack smokers
Fences – Because nothing says Oscar more than a Broadway play adapted almost word for word
Moonlight – It could do well on Oscar night
Deadpool – It was a game changer film and they have to show it some love somewhere, and this is the safe place for that
Lion – It’s a sleeper people
DARKHORSES: Hidden Figures, Nocturnal Animals
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea – Everyone else is an also ran
Denzel Washington – Fences – If for no other reason than the fact that this year more than any other year CAN’T be #OscarsSoWhite
Ryan Gosling – La La Land – They love him and they love this movie
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge – He’s run a hell of a campaign
Viggo Mortenson – Captain Fantastic – Don’t ask me why. But he’ll be nominated
DARKHORSES: Unless Ryan Reynolds sneaks in for Deadpool, there aren’t any.
Natalie Portman – Jackie – We just lost one first lady Hollywood loved, they need a new one to love
Emma Stone – Have you seen her campaign? She a lock
Amy Adams – Arrival – She gets awards for pooping and they loved this film
Isabelle Huppert – Elle – Every once in a while they decide to recognize an actress for a foreign language film. This is that once in a while.
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins – She was a long shot and then she said everything everyone wanted to hear at the Globes
DARKHORSES: Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train, Ruth Negga – Loving, Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures
Damien Chazelle – La La Land – Because he is this film
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight – Apparnetly great direction of an important film
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea – Because if it wasn’t for Ryan Gosling dancing and singing this would be the movie of the year
Martin Scorsese – Because he’s Marty!
Denis Villeneuve – Because they didn’t recognize him for his good movies, they are going to for a crappy one.
DARKHORSES: Garth Davis – Lion, Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge, Denzel Washington – Fences
BEST PICTURE – It will be eight, it almost always seems to be eight
La La Land – It’s going to win big that night, unless…..
Manchester by the Sea – It’s really good and they love it
Moonlight – An important film, apparently
Lion – Because I have faith that they will nominate the best film of 2016 that I saw
Hell or High Water – Nostalgia vote
Hidden Figures – Socially relevant option
Fences – Prestige film option
Arrival – Again there is no accounting for bad taste
DARKHORSES: Deadpool, Silence, Jackie
Okay so tune in tomorrow and see how smart I am!