PREDICTIONS I HAVE A FEW!

Oscars2016

Tomorrow, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their nominations for this year’s Oscars. And as usual I have predictions for who I think they will be.  I’m not saying that I’m going to be right, but just like in November I feel pretty confident that I have a good idea of who the voters are.  Unlike in November I think the voters are going to actually vote for the deserving people and not for some Orange Megalomaniacal Idiot.  Not that I am implying that our President is an Orange megalomaniacal Idiot.  Because I am not implying it, I am saying it.  Apparently it’s all the rage in America to just say whatever we want and damn the repercussions.

Okay enough with my political thoughts. Here are my guesses of nominations.  Now these aren’t based on who I think should get nominated, because I haven’t seen even half of these films.  This is strictly based on the other award nominations and the political reality of these films.  And yes, it’s all political.  How else do you explain Crash over Brokeback Mountain?

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight – It’s a lock!

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water – Another Lock

Dev Patel – Lion – Almost a certainty, unless some try to put him in the Best Actor.

Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins – He’s due and beyond held his own against Streep.

Aaron Taylor Johnson – Nocturnal Animals – Maybe, he’s the long shot

DARK HORSE: Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

viola

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Fences – Locked and Loaded.

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea – She breaks your heart with just a few scenes. It’s a lock.

Nicoel Kidman – Lion – They love her (I love her) and she’s really good in the film. Almost a certainty.

Naomie Harris – She’s locked up a lot of critic noms so she almost good to go.

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures – They love her too. And they nominated her for the same performance in The Help

DARKHORSES: Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures, Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Woman

la-la

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

La La Land – February 26th is their night

Manchester by the Sea – It’s heartbreaking

The Lobster – Because Hollywood loves to smoke crack, there’s no other excuse for this atrocity.

Hell or High Water – It’s got that old school field.

20th Century Woman – Because there is nothing else out there

DARKHORSES: Captain Fantastic, Jackie

arrival

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival – Don’t ask me why, but everyone loves this film. Even the non-crack smokers

Fences – Because nothing says Oscar more than a Broadway play adapted almost word for word

Moonlight – It could do well on Oscar night

Deadpool – It was a game changer film and they have to show it some love somewhere, and this is the safe place for that

Lion – It’s a sleeper people

DARKHORSES: Hidden Figures, Nocturnal Animals

affleck

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea – Everyone else is an also ran

Denzel Washington – Fences – If for no other reason than the fact that this year more than any other year CAN’T be #OscarsSoWhite

Ryan Gosling – La La Land – They love him and they love this movie

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge – He’s run a hell of a campaign

Viggo Mortenson – Captain Fantastic – Don’t ask me why. But he’ll be nominated

DARKHORSES: Unless Ryan Reynolds sneaks in for Deadpool, there aren’t any.

portman

BEST ACTRESS

Natalie Portman – Jackie – We just lost one first lady Hollywood loved, they need a new one to love

Emma Stone – Have you seen her campaign? She a lock

Amy Adams – Arrival – She gets awards for pooping and they loved this film

Isabelle Huppert – Elle – Every once in a while they decide to recognize an actress for a foreign language film. This is that once in a while.

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins – She was a long shot and then she said everything everyone wanted to hear at the Globes

DARKHORSES: Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train, Ruth Negga – Loving, Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures

scorsese

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle – La La Land – Because he is this film

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight – Apparnetly great direction of an important film

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea – Because if it wasn’t for Ryan Gosling dancing and singing this would be the movie of the year

Martin Scorsese – Because he’s Marty!

Denis Villeneuve – Because they didn’t recognize him for his good movies, they are going to for a crappy one.

DARKHORSES: Garth Davis – Lion, Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge, Denzel Washington – Fences

lion

BEST PICTURE – It will be eight, it almost always seems to be eight

La La Land – It’s going to win big that night, unless…..

Manchester by the Sea – It’s really good and they love it

Moonlight – An important film, apparently

Lion – Because I have faith that they will nominate the best film of 2016 that I saw

Hell or High Water – Nostalgia vote

Hidden Figures – Socially relevant option

Fences – Prestige film option

Arrival – Again there is no accounting for bad taste

DARKHORSES: Deadpool, Silence, Jackie

deadpool

Okay so tune in tomorrow and see how smart I am!

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