In less than 24 hours we will know who won the Oscars, which basically means we will know exactly how many Hollywood got wrong. Because this year I am convinced they are going to get more wrong than they get right. Below is my guess on who will win, and then who should win on the big 10 awards. I actually think Holly wood is only going to get four of them right. But hey as I often say I respect everyone’s right to be wrong.
Best Screenplay (Adapted)
The Big Short
The Martian – Will win, this is the bone they are throwing it.
The Martian should win, it’s a very wordy, scientific work of fiction that has been turned into something even someone like me that hates even saying science can understand and like.
Best Screenplay (Original)
Bridge of Spies
Straight Outta Compton – Will win, because nothing says we’re not racist like giving an Oscar to two white people who wrote a film about an African American experience.
Spotlight should win. It’s everything Hollywood needs to be writing and celebrating and any other year it probably would wi, but not the year of #OscarSoWhite: The Sequel
Best Original Song
Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey)
Manta Ray (Racing Extinction)
Simple Song #3 (Youth)
Til it Happens to You (The Hunting Ground) – Will win, how do you not give it to Lady Gaga?
Writings on the Wall (Spectre)
Til it Happens To You should win, it’s a perfect song that is actually perfect for the movie, and Lady Gaga is a talent.
Best Animated Film
Boy and the World
Inside Out – Will win, Even Hollywood can’t be stupid enough not to give it to this gem.
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Inside Out should win this one, and it’s such a no brainer that it could be the upset of the night.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale in The Big Short
Ton Hardy in The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight
Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone in Creed – Will win, because the aging white one note actor should win an award for playing that note again
Mark Ruffalo should win, because he is amazing in Spotlight, and I don’t’ even like Mark Ruffalo.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara in Carol
Rachel McAdams in Spotlight
Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl – Will win, because she’s in the wrong category so that they can recognize two leading ladies
Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs
Kate Winslet should win because she becomes someone else and you forget she’s Kate (a near impossible task) and she truly supports a lead performer.
Cate Blanchette in Carol
Brie Larson in Room – Will win, because how can you not award it to an actress named after cheese
Jennifer Lawrence in Joy
Charlotte Rampling in 48 years
Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn
Brie Larson should win, not only for being named after cheese but because she is amazing in this film. Her performance is a career making one and one that will be remembered for a while. Now full disclosure I did not see Rampling’s performance, but I just can’t imagine it is stronger than Larson’s.
Brian Cranston in Trumbo
Matt Damon in The Martian
Leonardo Dicaprio in The Revenant – Will win, not because he deserves it for this film, but because he deserved an Oscar in 1994 for Gilbert Grape, a nomination in 1996 for The Basketball Diaries, a nomination in 2003 for Catch Me If You Can, and an Oscar in 2009 for Revolutionary Road. So he’s due and he did one hell of a campaign. His performance is good, but out of the five nominees it’s probably fourth best. Before you jump all over me understand that I am one of his biggest fans. I love Leo, I just don’t think this performance is anything that 100+ other actors couldn’t have done as well.
Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl
Eddie Redmayne should win, because his performance is transformational and is one that only he could give.
Adam McKay for The Big Short
George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñárritu for The Revenant – Because Hollywood loves him and his “artiste” act
Lenny Abrahamson for Room
Tom McCarthy for Spotlight
George Miller should win for doing something artistic, daring, beautiful, scary and revolutionary.
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies (also known as “How the Hell Did This Get nominated, oh Spielberg/Hanks, never mind)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant – Will win because people suffered to make it, people who got paid a shit load of money, but they suffered none the less.
Spotlight should win for so many reasons, it’s well written, well acted, well directed, tells an important and timey story, and most importantly it is truly the best film of the year. Almost flawless in it’s execution. Unfortunately no one nearly froze to death while filming so it’s not going to win, unless Hollywood surprises us all. I’m hoping for a pleasant surprise.
One last prediction….Chris Rock does a solid job, but the critics hate him, because that is what they do every year.